'Why Australians should raise a glass or three to a hard Brexit' Hans van Leeuwen, AFR
London | It's all doom and gloom in Britain, but if the country crashes out with no Brexit deal on April 12, Aussies should go to the pub and celebrate.
A study by two economists from Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation has found that Australia could be €840 million ($1.3 billion) a year better off if Britain heads into a no-deal Brexit next month.
That's about €34 ($54) per person for this year. OK, it's not much, and as it reflects a change in our terms of trade it's neither direct, certain nor permanent. But still: it's enough to buy a round of drinks at your local - and raise a commiserating toast to our unfortunate Pommy friends, who will each be €873 a year worse off.
We don't get quite as much out of a hard Brexit as the Americans, where the per-capita gain is €41 - presumably all that chlorinated chicken they'll be able to sell when Britain caves in during its free-trade talks with Washington.
But at least we trump the Kiwis, who will gain by only €25 a head, and the Canadians at €21.
If Britain ultimately goes for a 'soft Brexit', the estimated gains diminish. Every Australian will be a mere $30 a year better off - barely enough for the pub, but you can buy yourself a nice bottle of French wine.
For those who are wondering about the economics of all this, the estimated welfare gains come from diversions of trade. As Britain's exports and imports become more expensive, prices are relatively lower Down Under and some trade shifts away from Britain towards countries like Australia.
Changes in the terms of trade are relative and rarely permanent, though. So drink up.
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Hans van Leeuwen covers British and European politics, economics and business from London. He has worked as a reporter, editor and policy adviser in Sydney, Canberra, Hanoi and London. Connect with Hans on Twitter. Email Hans at firstname.lastname@example.org